Budget Experts on the Fiscal Cliff....

http://money.cnn.com/2012/12/19/news/economy/fiscal-cliff-budget-experts/index.html

"Tax and entitlement reforms: Reforming the tax code and entitlement spending will be key to reducing deficits in the long run.

But since Congress and the White House have waited until the last minute to negotiate, no one expects them to reach a grand bargain with all the details hammered out.

But, budget experts say, there needs to be a strong "framework" agreement that paves the way for substantial debt reduction without upending the economy in the near term.

Such an agreement would postpone most fiscal cliff measures -- since they threaten the recovery next year. It would also include some sort of small down payment for deficit reduction and further require that Congress pass a large, long-term debt reduction package by a given date next year."

Consider this Fiscal Cliff Issue - "Punted" - barring a minor miracle, there will NOT be an agreement before the 31st  with any "meat" in it, not that goes into effect anyway.  Watch us "take another one in the economic chin" as law makers - especially those viewing spending cuts as worst than "the devil" himself.  My prediction - we are going to be downgraded again by S&P etc.,: Uncle Sam is still too messed up, the legislative environment and process incapable of producing reasonable and prudent legislation....AND....still NO results to reduce debt.  Alas, the markets will suffer and the economy will continue staggering forward.

Ah yes, and the gimmicks we are about to see:  

"In the absence of bond market pressure, it is hard to be too optimistic that Congress will either complete these 2013 tax and entitlement reform processes or refrain from filling in the blanks with gimmicks," said Sean West, U.S. policy director of the Eurasia Group."

 "Budget gimmicks: Experts say Congress needs to enact at least $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years to start curbing the growth in debt.  "But not all $4 trillion plans are created equal. Everything depends on what's counted."

Expect Obama etc., to "count" savings from withdrawing from Iraq, Afghanistan etc., as part of the $4 Trillion plan.  My bet - Dumbo and his entire family of elephants will ALL grow wings and start their very own circus "flying act" before a legit 4 Trillion Dollar plan is agreed upon.  There will NOT be 4 Trillion in actual, NEW savings or cuts, up and above the Budget Control Act.  Uncle Sam will slyly try to pass 4 trillion in cuts with included savings from NOT being in wars oversees.   "Of course, such a plan would do less to curb growth in the debt than a plan that achieves $4 trillion in debt reduction on top of Budget Control Act and war savings."

One budget analysis actually suggested there may actually be less than even 1 Trillion in NEW cuts.  To further quote West...

"And in reality, West noted, such a deal could end up delivering less than $1 trillion in new savings if many of the actual spending cuts are not specified in the deal."

So, look forward to a very Happy New Year :)  The stock markets, national credit rating, and the US economy will be paying for this until REAL spending cuts are accepted in new law(s).